Why Trump didn't strike Iran and what Israel should fear – analyst

Military commentator Ron Ben-Yishai explains in an article for Ynet why Trump did not strike Iran: Tehran deciphered his bluff strategy (TACO), and Washington avoided escalation due to the risk of recession, oil prices, and the position of the Gulf monarchies. The main conclusion is that Israel has lost its influence on the US, learning about decisions from social media, which has become a systemic threat.

Military commentator Ron Ben-Yishai analyzes in an article for Ynet why the Trump administration abandoned a forceful scenario against Iran and what consequences this has for Israel. In his opinion, Tehran deciphered Trump's strategy, nicknamed TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out), and used it to its advantage, engaging in behind-the-scenes negotiations through intermediaries. Ben-Yishai calculated that Trump at least six times publicly promised to 'return Iran to the Stone Age,' but each time limited himself to symbolic steps. The refusal to launch a large-scale attack is explained by pragmatic reasons: the threat of recession, rising energy prices, and warnings from the Gulf monarchies, especially after a phone call with the Saudi Crown Prince. The main conclusion is that Israel has practically lost its leverage over US decisions, becoming a 'satellite state of the worst kind.' The Israeli leadership did not receive advance notifications of Washington's plans, learning about the cancellation of strikes from social media. The IDF is forced to spend resources on false alarms and mobilization, which becomes a systemic security threat.