Why Iran’s threat keeps haunting the Middle East - and how to finally break the cycle - opinion

A UAE political analyst argues that Iran's threat persists because the world focuses on the regime rather than the centralized state structure that allows it to rebuild. He cites the 2015 nuclear deal and the 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani as examples of containment failures. He proposes decentralization or federalism as a solution, but only if adopted through national consent. He warns against forced regime change or breakup, which could lead to civil conflict. He calls for four parallel steps: capping offensive capabilities, institutional reform, regional deterrence, and diplomacy linking integration to conduct change.

In this opinion piece, UAE political analyst Salem Alketbi argues that the international community's approach to Iran has failed because it targets the regime rather than the underlying centralized state structure that enables it to rebuild its power. He points to the 2015 nuclear deal and the 2020 killing of Qasem Soleimani as examples of containment that only provided temporary setbacks. Alketbi contends that Iran's threat is not solely about its nuclear program or proxies, but about a large state with resources, expertise, and military institutions that can recover from losses. He proposes that the solution lies in decentralization or federalism, adopted through national consent, to disperse power and resources away from the center. He warns against forced regime change or breakup, which could lead to civil conflict and regional instability. Instead, he advocates for four parallel steps: capping offensive capabilities, institutional reform, regional deterrence, and diplomacy linking integration to conduct change. The article reflects a strategic perspective on how to address Iran's influence in the region.