Why elections have become dangerous for the Kremlin – Forbes

Forbes warns that the autumn State Duma elections are turning into a hidden referendum on trust in the war for the Kremlin. Analysts link the court ban on the Yabloko party's participation to its anti-war slogan. Pressure on dissent is growing amid Ukrainian strikes on Russian infrastructure, economic exhaustion, fuel shortages, and the threat of a new mobilization.

An analytical piece by Forbes, retold by Kursor, argues that the autumn State Duma elections are turning into a hidden referendum for the Kremlin on trust in the war and Vladimir Putin's course. A telling precedent is the court ban on the Yabloko party, which for years remained on the political periphery. In August, the nationalist movement 'Semya' led by Alexei Zhuravlev filed a lawsuit with Russia's Supreme Court, accusing the party of bias and orientation toward Western values. On August 10, the court upheld the claim. Analysts believe the main reason was Yabloko's anti-war slogan 'For peace and freedom,' which clashed with the Kremlin's course of continuing hostilities against Ukraine. A second factor in tightening control is the war's impact on the home front: Ukraine's long-range strikes on oil refineries, fuel storage, and pipelines undermine oil and gas revenues, causing local fuel shortages and supply rationing. Economic exhaustion manifests in accelerating inflation, labor shortages, and the sell-off of the National Reserve Fund; according to the Bank of Finland, the 'safety cushion' is depleted, and the Central Bank is tapping gold reserves. A serious source of anxiety remains the prospect of a new mass mobilization after the elections, which would finally bring the war into Russians' homes.