What Russia's New Agreement with the Syrian Army Means for Israel – Analysts

The Israeli Alma Center has released a report on the transformation of Russia's military presence in Syria. Moscow is shifting from sovereign bases to a partnership model, training Syrian troops at its facilities. This reduces Russia's autonomy and strengthens Damascus's position. For Israel, the risk of direct incidents decreases, but the need for deconfliction remains.

The Israeli think tank Alma Center has published a report on the transformation of Russia's military presence in Syria. According to its findings, Moscow is not fully withdrawing its forces but is transitioning from a format of sovereign bases to a partnership model: Syrian military personnel will be trained at Russian bases, which reduces costs and political risks for the Kremlin but curtails its autonomy. The balance of power is shifting toward Damascus, which gains leverage over civilian infrastructure and uses rapprochement with the West to extract better terms. Russia retains influence through maintenance of arsenals, supply of spare parts, officer training, and personal ties with new elites. A key test will be Syria's ability to find alternative oil suppliers: if energy supply diversification succeeds, Moscow's most important lever will weaken. For Israel, this reduces the threat of direct incidents with Russian units, but experts warn of the need to constantly update deconfliction mechanisms due to remaining Russian specialists, equipment, and intelligence capabilities.