What if they had woken up the prime minister
Prof. Guy Hochman analyzes Netanyahu's claim that if he had been woken up on the night of October 7, the massacre would not have happened. He explains why this is a logical leap based on cognitive biases like hindsight bias and self-serving bias, and emphasizes that there is no way to know what would have happened in an alternative world.
Prof. Guy Hochman, an expert in behavioral economics and decision-making from Reichman University, analyzes in an opinion column Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's claim in an interview with 'The Patriots' that if he had been woken up on the night between October 6 and 7, 2023, and informed of the intelligence held by the security establishment, the massacre would not have occurred. Hochman argues that this is a logical leap: it is possible Netanyahu would have acted differently, but it does not follow that the massacre would have been prevented. He explains the thought mechanisms leading to such a claim – hindsight bias, self-serving bias, overconfidence, and the illusion of control – and emphasizes that there is no way to know what would have happened in an alternative world. Hochman calls for distinguishing between knowledge and desire, and between responsibility and prophecy, noting that a commission of inquiry can investigate history but not alternative history.