Washington's Hourglass: 3 Months to Elections That Will Determine Trump's Fate

About three months before the US midterm elections, Democrats lead in polls for the House of Representatives, while Republicans maintain a narrow advantage in the Senate. Trump is at a low with 35% approval, and the MAGA brand weighs on candidates. Decisive races in Michigan and Texas, and possible implications for Israel if Congress changes.

About three months before the US midterm elections in November, the political picture is converging on a split scenario: Democrats have become favorites to retake the House of Representatives, but Republicans still hold a narrow advantage in the Senate. Trump currently controls the House, Senate, and Supreme Court, but if he loses the majority, he could become a 'lame duck' with his agenda stalled and investigations. Only 35% of Americans are satisfied with his performance, and the cost of living is the central issue for 45%. The MAGA brand has become a burden: 59% of independents say identifying with the movement would reduce their chances of voting. The Decision Desk HQ model gives Democrats a 61% chance to take the House and 43% in the Senate. In Michigan, progressive and anti-Israel Abdul El-Sayed won the primary, and in Texas, Trump-backed Ken Paxton faces James Talarico. For Israel, a scenario of losing the majority and strengthening the left could turn votes against aid into a real threat.