US tightens the noose on Iran — but the real test is China
The article analyzes the American strategy to economically strangle Iran, focusing on the central obstacle: China. Washington is working to disrupt the entire Iranian trade and financial chain, but as long as China continues to purchase most of Iran's oil, Tehran retains a significant economic lifeline. The real test will be forcing major Chinese financial institutions to choose between Iran and access to the Western financial system.
The article analyzes the United States' economic campaign against Iran, focusing on the central obstacle: China. Washington, under the Trump administration, is no longer satisfied with imposing sanctions on Iranian companies but is working to disrupt the entire value chain – oil exports, the shadow fleet, money changers, shell companies, refineries, banks, and procurement networks. The goal is not to prevent Iran from making money, but to prevent it from converting income into military power and funding for its proxies. Iran, for its part, has built a parallel system to bypass the dollar-based financial system: selling oil to China, using the yuan, barter trade, gold, crypto, and trade routes through Turkey and Iraq. The central test is China: as long as it continues to purchase most of Iran's oil, Tehran retains a significant source of income. The US imposes sanctions on refineries and small Chinese companies but is cautious about a direct confrontation with major Chinese financial institutions, which could escalate the campaign into a broader economic war. Turkey and Europe also serve as nodes for sanctions evasion, but enforcement there is more effective. The article concludes that the question is not when Iran will run out of money, but how much it will cost to obtain one usable dollar – as the cost of concealment and transportation rises, the economic campaign will turn from pressure into a strategic siege.