US makes a new bet against Iran - media
Israeli political scientist Amit Yagur believes that the US is betting on the gradual weakening of the regime in Iran, rather than its destruction. The strategy includes strikes on military infrastructure, economic pressure through strikes on transport arteries, support for the opposition, and the formation of a regional coalition. Yagur emphasizes the importance of Iran's regular army and the need for a comprehensive approach.
Israeli political scientist and reserve lieutenant colonel Amit Yagur presented an assessment of the US strategy towards Iran. In his opinion, Washington is betting not on the destruction of the Iranian state, but on the gradual weakening of the ruling regime. The main goal of the campaign remains the destruction of military infrastructure that gives Tehran the ability to project force: ballistic missile depots, launch sites, weapons and drone production facilities, and command posts. Weakening these components will deprive the country's leadership of the ability to threaten neighboring states and maintain the image of a strong regional power. At the same time, the US may increase pressure on Iran's internal infrastructure by striking key transport arteries, logistics hubs, and supply routes, leading to disruptions in fuel, food, medicine, and industrial goods, exacerbating the economic crisis and public discontent. However, economic pressure alone is not enough for a change of power. The analyst believes that Iranian society needs an alternative to the current leadership: the opposition, with the support of the international community, should present a transitional government, a country recovery program, and security guarantees. Yagur assigns a key role to Iran's regular army, which is less ideologized than the IRGC and may refuse to support the regime if security guarantees are provided. Another element of the strategy he calls the formation of a regional coalition around Iran with the participation of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Iraq. Yagur emphasizes that only a combination of military strikes, economic pressure, opposition support, and diplomatic work can create conditions for weakening the regime.