Unity at the Front, Division at Home: The Struggle in the Iranian Leadership over the War Strategy

A power struggle is underway in the Iranian leadership between hardliners and moderates over the war strategy against the US. The hardliners, from the 'Paidari' movement, demand total victory, while Pezeshkian and Qalibaf warn of economic collapse. The ceasefire deal was approved by a large majority but collapsed. Supreme Leader Khamenei was wounded, and state television censors the moderates.

Despite a united front toward the United States, a fierce power struggle is underway in the Iranian leadership over the strategy to end the war. The hardline camp, members of the 'Paidari' movement ('Stability' in Persian), opposes any negotiation with Washington, demands a complete military victory, and the tightening of religious-social enforcement. Opposing them is the moderate camp of President Masoud Pezeshkian and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, who sees military pressure as a means to extract gains at the negotiating table and is concerned about the heavy economic cost. Qalibaf's adviser, Mehdi Mohammadi, emphasized that negotiation is a complementary political tool to military action. The ceasefire deal reached in April was approved by 12 of the 13 members of the Supreme National Security Council, with Saeed Jalili, one of the hardline figures, being the only one to oppose. The ceasefire collapsed, and the promises of the June memorandum of understanding were not fulfilled. The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who was wounded in the attack that killed his father on February 28, remains in hiding, and both camps claim his support. State television (IRIB), controlled by hardliners, cut off speeches by Pezeshkian and Qalibaf, and the president accused it of creating a false impression. More than 250 former lawmakers, clerics, and lecturers signed a petition against the war in July. The Iranian currency is plummeting, inflation is soaring, and unemployment is rising.