Unexpected: VEB Chief Economist Predicts Russia's Defeat in the War

VEB's chief economist Andrei Klepach stated that Russia is losing technological and economic competition, including to Ukraine, and will not win a war of attrition. He noted that Ukraine's economy will not collapse thanks to Western support, while Russia's costs are rising. After the boom of 2023–2024, Russia's economy has entered a downturn, with civilian sectors in recession. Klepach warned of a possible social crisis, comparing it to the February Revolution of 1917.

Andrei Klepach, the chief economist of the Russian state development corporation VEB.RF, made a rare admission: Russia is unable to achieve victory in a prolonged war of attrition while Ukraine receives large-scale Western support. This is reported by The Moscow Times. Klepach pointed to the severe consequences of sanctions and strikes on Russian infrastructure—from the oil and gas sector to the military-industrial complex and logistics. According to him, the Russian economy is rapidly losing global competitiveness. "We are falling behind. We are losing both technological and economic competition in the world. Moreover, as I said, we are losing not only to China and the USA, but in some ways we are losing to Ukraine," Klepach stated. He emphasized that the Ukrainian economy continues to function thanks to external support, and called the hopes for its collapse an illusion. "We will not win the competition in this war of attrition. We have an illusion that everything will collapse there. It hasn't collapsed and won't. Our costs are increasing," he noted. After the military boom of 2023–2024, Russia's economy has entered a phase of decline, with civilian sectors—from food industry to aircraft manufacturing—in recession. Klepach warned of a possible deep social crisis that could erupt suddenly, like the February Revolution of 1917. Earlier, Kursor reported that Putin refused to end the war and is doubling down.