Turning Turkey’s double bind against it: How Israel is outsmarting Erdogan - opinion

Israel is outsmarting Turkey by exploiting Ankara's 'double bind' of needing to be both Western and revisionist, argues strategic consultant Shay Gal. The article describes Israel's 'Sèvres Deterrent' doctrine and 'Constantinople Protocol' to reduce dependence on Turkish infrastructure, citing partnerships with Greece and Cyprus, and a planned tri-service rapid response force. It mentions the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and argues that Turkish NATO membership does not shield it from Israeli action under self-defense.

In an opinion piece for The Jerusalem Post, strategic consultant Shay Gal argues that Israel is outsmarting Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by exploiting what he calls Turkey's 'double bind' — the need to remain both Western enough to receive financing and arms, and revisionist enough to stay indispensable. Gal contends that Israel's policy, which he dubs the 'Sèvres Deterrent,' weaponizes Turkey's fear of encirclement rooted in the 1920 Treaty of Sèvres. He describes a 'Constantinople Protocol' aimed at ensuring no Turkish gate remains singular, with ports, airspace, and data replaceable. The article cites the 2010 Mavi Marmara raid as a rupture and mentions the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement signed August 7 by Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Gal highlights Israel's partnerships with Greece and Cyprus, including a 2026 military work plan and a planned tri-service rapid response force. He notes Greece's July approval of up to €3.5 billion for air defense, with Israeli systems at the core of 'Achilles Shield.' The piece discusses 'Poseidon's Wrath,' a contingency for neutralizing Turkish forces in northern Cyprus, and argues that Turkish NATO membership does not shield it from Israeli action under self-defense. Gal concludes that Turkey's coercion is declining in yield.