Turkey pushes into Syria, Israel draws a red line — and Trump is stuck in the middle

Israel is making clear to Turkey that it will not allow any infringement on the freedom of operation of its air force in Syria, while Ankara is trying to deepen its grip on the country. Syrian President al-Sharaa is attempting to maintain his independence, and the US is working to mediate between the sides. The fear of a direct confrontation between Israel and Turkey looms in the background, but the assessment is that it is not inevitable.

Israel is making clear to Turkey that it will not allow any infringement on the freedom of operation of its air force in Syrian territory, against the backdrop of Ankara's efforts to deepen its military hold on the country. Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa (al-Jolani) is trying to maintain his political independence and limit Israeli activity in Syrian territory, while gradually seeking to restore Syrian sovereignty. Meanwhile, the United States, through President Trump, is working to mediate between the sides and prevent direct friction. Israeli sources assess that the Turks are taking into account the possible cost of a deterioration into conflict, given the strength Israel demonstrated against Hezbollah and Iran. However, the assessment emerging from closed discussions is that an Israeli-Turkish confrontation is not an inevitable outcome. The decisive question is whether it is possible to reconcile Turkey's attempt to deepen its influence with Israel's demand to prevent a new military threat and preserve its freedom of action. Al-Sharaa and the Americans are in the middle, trying to formulate an arrangement.