Trump wanted to cripple Iran - now he might be handing Tehran a victory - opinion

In an opinion piece, Dovi Honig argues that after two US bombing campaigns, America is negotiating with Iran over the Strait of Hormuz, potentially offering sanctions relief. He contends this hands Iran a victory, as its regime survived and can rebuild with Russian and Chinese help. He warns that Hamas will learn that holding out brings concessions, and that regional powers are building independent structures. He questions if Washington is just trying to get past the midterms, and measures victory by whether Iran gets a nuclear weapon.

In this opinion column, Dovi Honig argues that the United States, under President Donald Trump, is on the verge of handing Iran a strategic victory after two military campaigns. The US struck Iran's nuclear facilities in the first attack, but after the second bombing campaign, the question is what America actually won. Iran's regime survived, its nuclear ambitions remain unresolved, and its missile and drone capabilities are being rebuilt with help from Russia and China. Iran has turned the Strait of Hormuz into leverage, and Washington is reportedly considering releasing frozen Iranian funds and providing partial sanctions relief in exchange for unrestricted passage through the strait. Honig warns that loosening sanctions would free resources for Iran to rebuild its military and support proxies like Hezbollah, the Houthis, and Hamas. He argues that this would send a catastrophic message, teaching Hamas that holding out brings concessions. He also notes that regional powers like Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey are building independent security structures, which could eventually surround Israel. The column suggests that Washington may be trying to get through the midterms before returning to pressure, but Iran gets the same months to rebuild. Honig concludes that victory must be measured by whether Iran is prevented from getting a nuclear weapon, not by the number of bombs dropped.