Trump's Perfect Moment May Slip Away – NYT
In a New York Times op-ed, expert Thomas Graham argues that Donald Trump has a unique window to resume diplomatic efforts and end the Russia-Ukraine war, but this chance could vanish quickly. He highlights two factors: a dangerous escalation spiral and the exhaustion of both sides. Graham believes only Washington can engage in dialogue with Kyiv, Moscow, and European capitals, and urges immediate action before escalation closes the window of opportunity.
Thomas Graham, a White House expert during George W. Bush's administration, wrote in The New York Times that U.S. President Donald Trump has an ideal and unique moment to resume diplomatic efforts and end the Russia-Ukraine war. According to him, this chance could disappear very quickly. Graham notes that Putin continues to speak approvingly of Trump, but some Russian officials and commentators doubt his ability to be an effective mediator. The need for immediate U.S. involvement is driven by two factors. First, a dangerous escalation spiral: Kyiv is increasing strikes deep into Russia, hitting military targets and energy infrastructure, cutting off Crimea; Russians are feeling the war's consequences for the first time, and the Kremlin fears demoralization; Russia is intensifying strikes on Ukrainian cities, exploiting the shortage of air defense; Europe is growing concerned over NATO airspace violations. Second, the exhaustion of both sides: Kyiv suffers from a shortage of troops and mobilization problems; prolonging the war reduces the chances of emigrants returning and increases reconstruction costs (hundreds of billions of dollars); Russia faces a demographic crisis and economic costs, lagging behind the U.S. and China. Graham believes that if the war is stopped now, each side can claim victory: Zelensky can claim the preservation of independence and sovereignty, and Putin can claim resistance to the West and the 'liberation' of millions of Russians. This requires intensive diplomatic efforts, as only Washington has the weight to talk to Kyiv, Moscow, and Europe. A quick breakthrough should not be expected; the main thing is to create a basis for shuttle diplomacy. Action must be taken immediately, before escalation closes the window of opportunity.