Trump's Dilemma: Iran Grinds Down, China Waits
Sixty days after the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, talks are not progressing and Hormuz is again at the center of the conflict. Trump is narrowing his goals to restoring freedom of navigation, while the war erodes American forces and stockpiles, complicating deterrence against China. Israel may feel growing American pressure to show restraint in other arenas.
The sixty days set in the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran have passed, and instead of a permanent agreement, the picture is almost the opposite of what Trump sought to create. Talks are not advancing, the Strait of Hormuz is again at the center of the conflict, and the possibility of further escalation remains real. The memorandum, designed to reach understandings within sixty days on the difficult issues, chiefly the nuclear program and sanctions, has not achieved its goals. The author, retired Colonel Eldad Shavit, a senior researcher at INSS, argues that the American goal is narrowing. In June, Trump sought to turn military achievements into a broad settlement, but today the immediate goal appears far more modest—restoring freedom of navigation, halting the deterioration, and creating conditions for a return to negotiations. Iran continues to hold the strait as leverage, and traffic there remains very limited. The war is also exacting a price from the posture toward China. The aircraft carrier George Washington was sent westward, leaving the western Pacific without an American carrier. The campaign consumed large quantities of missiles and interceptors, and assessments warn that the erosion of stockpiles creates a readiness risk in the event of a crisis with China. For Israel, the implications go beyond the talks with Iran. The more the administration seeks to stabilize the Gulf, the more sensitive it is likely to become to escalation in other arenas, and Israel may encounter growing American pressure for restraint.