Trump faces a big failure — alarming data at a dangerous moment

Three months before the US midterm elections, Donald Trump's approval rating has dropped to 33% — the lowest of his second term. The coalition that secured his victory in 2024 shows signs of fracturing: support among Latino and independent voters is declining, and a growing rift within the Republican Party between MAGA supporters and moderates is emerging. The six-month war with Iran has hit oil trade and gas prices, undermining Trump's economic promises. Losing control of the House or Senate in November could seriously complicate his agenda for the remainder of his term.

Three months before the US midterm elections, Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 33% — the lowest of his second term, according to a Reuters and Ipsos poll. 64% of respondents are dissatisfied with his performance. The coalition that secured Trump's victory in 2024 was significantly broader than the traditional MAGA core: he substantially improved his standing among Latino voters (48% vs. 36% in 2020), youth, and the working class. Now these groups show signs of distancing. The reasons vary: for Latinos, the economy is the top concern; among independents, it is a combination of the high cost of living and the war. Within the Republican Party, the gap is widening between loyal MAGA supporters and moderate Republicans. The war with Iran, now nearly six months old, has dealt a blow to oil trade through the Strait of Hormuz and contributed to rising gas prices. 80% of Americans believe US involvement in the conflict will be prolonged, and 57% consider the decision to start the war a mistake. The midterm elections will determine control of the House (currently held by a slim Republican majority) and the Senate (53 Republicans, 45 Democrats plus two independents). Losing the House majority would allow Democrats to block White House initiatives and conduct investigations. Trump's power base remains stable: 95% of MAGA supporters approve of his performance, but among Republicans who do not identify as MAGA, support is only 59%.