Trump Decides - and Israel Stands Aside: 'Everything Is Subject to His Will' | The Main Problems, and the Remaining Advantage
The US attacked Iran for consecutive nights, and Israel remained outside the campaign. In Jerusalem, they learned about the cancellation of a massive strike from a Trump tweet, who publicly declares that Netanyahu does what he asks. Experts identify three main problems: loss of operational independence, growing challenges from enemies, and damage to Israel's strategic standing. However, there is an advantage in a pressure mechanism that requires the use of diplomatic tools.
Four months after the end of Operation 'Lion's Roar', which was defined as temporary and fragile, the confrontation between Washington and Tehran flared up again. The US attacked Iran for consecutive nights - military bases, infrastructure, ports, bridges, and airports - while Israel remained outside the campaign. The Americans made clear that they want Israel not to intervene as long as Iran does not attack it directly. In Israel, they watched from the sidelines but remained under direct threat: in Tehran, they threatened to 'punish' it, and in Jerusalem, they prepared for the possibility that the confrontation would spill over. Dr. Avishai Ben Sasson-Gordis from INSS identifies three main problems: first, Israel cannot act independently against an emerging threat that is not immediate, because its actions are subject to the wishes of the US president. Second, its enemies recognize the subordination of operational independence and challenge it more. Third, Israel finds itself with less influence and constitutes a burden on American security. However, he notes an advantage: a pressure mechanism that requires Israel to also use diplomatic tools. Trump canceled a massive strike planned on Iran in a nighttime announcement, after threatening an unprecedented attack. He claimed that 'outlines' of a possible deal had been achieved, and that Israel had joined commitments to avoid an attack. This pattern creates difficulty in IDF planning. Trump said publicly: 'If I tell Netanyahu to do something - he does', and dismissed the Israeli concern about the 'mountain of pressure' by saying 'not a big problem, Bibi doesn't need to tell me'.