Threat Escalates Beyond the Gulf – Iran Attacks Alternative Routes

Due to stalled negotiations and fears of a full-scale war, Gulf states are forced to accept Iran's permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz. Experts worry this will permanently alter the global energy market. Iran is attacking alternative routes: the UAE reported attacks on four vessels, Saudi Arabia faces Houthi shelling, and a gas carrier was attacked in Egypt. Shipping volumes have dropped from 8.5 to 2.2 million barrels per day. Negotiations are deadlocked, with Brent futures around $87.

Due to stalled negotiations and fears of a full-scale war, Gulf states are forced to accept Iran's permanent control over the Strait of Hormuz. Energy sector experts fear that Iran's permanent presence on this key route will permanently change the global energy market, as reported by WSJ. Although the proposed agreement to resume shipping effectively legitimizes inspections by Iranian forces, Arab states view this option as the lesser of two evils. The region's main fear is a possible direct military escalation between the US and Iran, which could completely destroy local infrastructure. Negotiations have stalled due to tough conditions: Tehran demands economic concessions and a complete ban on US and Israeli warships entering the strait, while Washington refuses any agreement that limits freedom of international navigation. Market reaction was swift: Brent crude futures settled around $87 per barrel. The Iranian threat has already extended far beyond the Persian Gulf: the UAE recorded attacks on at least four of its vessels attempting to pass through the strait, Saudi Arabia tries to transport oil overland to the Red Sea, but this route is shelled by Yemeni Houthis, and a drone attack on a gas carrier at the port of Damietta confirmed that other logistics hubs are also in the crosshairs. Crude oil shipping volumes through the strait have collapsed from 8.5 million to 2.2 million barrels per day. To overcome the crisis, Gulf states are urgently developing an action plan: expanding pipeline networks toward the Gulf of Oman and the Red Sea, and increasing investments in overseas storage. However, until these projects are realized, the region's economy remains directly dependent on decisions made by Tehran's leadership.