The Shadow of Stalin over the Kremlin: What Awaits Russia After Putin Leaves

An analytical article based on Foreign Affairs material examines scenarios for a power transition in Russia after Vladimir Putin's departure or death. It notes that the system is tied to Putin's personality, with no clear mechanism for transferring power or an obvious successor. Possible outcomes include a struggle among elite groups and internal instability. A parallel is drawn with the power struggle after Stalin's death in 1953. Agreements within a narrow circle, rather than formal procedures, could play a decisive role.

An analytical article based on Foreign Affairs material examines scenarios for a power transition in Russia after Vladimir Putin's departure or death. The authors note that the system built by Putin is entirely tied to his personality, and there is no clear mechanism for transferring power or an obvious successor. This creates a risk of a serious struggle among elite groups and internal instability. Possible scenarios are considered: a swift transfer of power to a prepared candidate, acute rivalry among elite representatives, or the retention of power by an aging group of officials. The problem is exacerbated by the fact that key state institutions are controlled by people of the same generation as Putin, creating a personnel imbalance and limiting opportunities for younger cadres. Formally, the Constitution provides for a temporary transfer of powers and early elections within three months, but it does not answer the question of who will gain the advantage. Agreements within a narrow circle could play a decisive role. Putin has not created a system for preparing a successor, and Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin does not look like an obvious heir. The Medvedev experience showed only a temporary redistribution of powers. The article draws a parallel with the power struggle after Stalin's death in 1953, when formal procedure did not guarantee a peaceful transition, and real centers of influence and personal connections were decisive. Analysts admit that after Putin's departure, a limited circle of the most influential representatives of the system could gain a key role.