The scenario Israel cannot survive: the unusual warning about the next round against Iran

An expert from the University of Haifa warns that Israel is not built for a prolonged campaign against Iran, and cautions against an almost complete dependence on the US that undermines Israeli operational independence. According to him, the only strategic achievement is a window of opportunity in Lebanon and Syria, and further rounds of attrition should be avoided.

In the article, Batya Giladi interviews Amatzia Baram, a Middle East expert from the University of Haifa, who warns against additional rounds of fighting against Iran. Baram argues that Israel has achieved a significant accomplishment against Iran and Hezbollah, but is not built for a prolonged campaign – not economically, not socially, and not even in terms of the air force, which is relatively small. According to him, the biggest change is the degree of Israel's dependence on the United States: 'All our activity against Iran is currently dictated by the United States,' and he warns of the danger that the US will impose a policy contrary to Israeli interests. Baram calls for renewing dialogue with the new government in Syria to prevent Iranian arms smuggling to Hezbollah, and distinguishes between military deterrence that has been maintained and a political trust crisis with Jordan and Egypt. In conclusion, he emphasizes that Israel should take advantage of the window of opportunity in Lebanon and Syria, avoid rounds of attrition against Iran, and act in coordination with the US – 'sometimes the greatest achievement is knowing when not to go to another war.'