The Public Moves Right but the Coalition Weakens: The Mystery of the Lost Seats

Israel's public is moving rightward following the war, yet the coalition bloc is weakening in polls. It is estimated that 15 to 25 seats of right-wing voters are unwilling to vote for existing right-wing parties. The gap stems from the composition of the Likud list, the alliance with the Haredim, anger over the October 7 failure, the cost of living, and the failure of the judicial reform. Opposition parties are trying to outflank from the right, but they lack a genuine answer to the value of Jewish tradition. The possibility of a new right-wing party is being considered.

Israel's public is moving rightward following the massacre and the war, but the coalition bloc, which represents the right-wing parties, is weakening. This dissonance keeps Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and other right-wing party leaders up at night. It is estimated that there are between 15 and 25 seats of right-wing voters who are unwilling to vote for any of the three existing right-wing parties: Likud, Religious Zionism, and Otzma Yehudit. The rightward shift is expressed in three areas: tradition and Judaism, a strict security perception and zero tolerance for the Arab enemy, and sympathy for settlement in Judea and Samaria. If there were 68 seats in the current Knesset that believed in these values before October 7, today there should be over 70, perhaps 75 seats. In the most favorable poll, by Momo Filber on Channel 14, these parties receive 62 seats. The findings show that the composition of the Likud list and the alliance with the Haredim deter right-wingers. Also on the margins: anger at the government for the October 7 disaster occurring on its watch, failure to address the cost of living, and disappointment over the failure of the judicial reform. Opposition parties - of Gadi Eisenkot, Naftali Bennett, Avigdor Liberman, and Benny Gantz - are trying to address two of these values, but they lack a genuine answer to Jewish tradition. The article criticizes the opposition leaders, claiming they 'fell into hard leftism in real time.' Eisenkot is portrayed as a man of surrender and agreements, supporting the two-state solution. Liberman promoted a plan to cede territories, including Umm al-Fahm. Bennett joined Lapid. The possibility of a new right-wing party is being considered, but Netanyahu fears the electoral threshold.