The Octopus of Proxies: Challenge and Opportunity from the Iraqi Direction

A strategic analysis of the challenge posed by pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, and the opportunity created for Gulf states and the US to exert combined pressure on Baghdad to act against them. The author, a Middle East expert, presents the geopolitical dilemma and the potential for a shift in Iraqi policy.

A strategic analysis by Royi Benimini, former head of a department in the National Security Council, examining the growing challenge from pro-Iranian militias in Iraq and the opportunity created for Gulf states and the US. The author describes how Iran exploits its regional proxies—the Houthis in Yemen and Shia militias in Iraq—to create a 'divide and rule' strategy, leveraging the American economic interest in the Strait of Hormuz. Following recent drone attacks from Iraq against Saudi Arabia and Israel, the US Central Command, in coordination with Saudi Arabia, struck militia targets in Iraq. The author identifies an opportunity to exert combined pressure on the new Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi, a banker who understands the language of numbers, through a carrot-and-stick equation: sanctions and isolation versus broad economic incentives that would replace dependence on Iran. Alongside this, the author notes growing internal criticism in Iraq from the camp of Muqtada al-Sadr and Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, who call for disarming the militias. The analysis emphasizes that a strategic shift will require Iraq to choose a side and adopt a resolute approach against Iranian meddling.