The Obstacle on the Way to Opening the Strait: Who Really Rules Iran?

Arab mediators working on an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fear that Tehran's representatives lack the power to ensure compliance with the deal. The diplomats are under pressure from the Revolutionary Guards and the hardline camp to secure immediate economic gains. Talks have stalled after the Guards demanded explicit recognition of Iran's role and clear benefits, including transit fees and sanctions relief.

Arab mediators working to reach an agreement with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz fear that Tehran's negotiators lack the authority to guarantee Iran will uphold the deal, even if one is reached. This was reported today (Friday) in the Wall Street Journal. According to them, the Iranian diplomats are under heavy pressure from the Revolutionary Guards and the hardline camp to secure immediate economic gains. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf supported a plan whereby traffic in the strait would be divided into an entry lane near Iran and an exit lane near Oman, viewing it as recognition of Tehran's influence over the shipping route. However, talks became complicated after the Revolutionary Guards demanded that the agreement more explicitly recognize Iran's role and grant it clear benefits. Even after mediators circulated a draft agreement midweek, the Guards continued to demand the right to collect transit fees from ships and clear commitments that the US would lift the blockade and sanctions on Iranian oil exports. According to the mediators, the Guards, who are praised in Iran for their actions against the US, are signaling they could resume attacks on ships if the agreement does not yield sufficient profits. Due to the pressure, the talks have expanded beyond a temporary agreement to resume traffic in the strait, now also including steps to ease Iran's economic crisis. Among other things, sanctions exemptions allowing Tehran to export oil and the release of frozen Iranian funds are being discussed—steps included in the memorandum of understanding signed between the US and Iran in June, but which has been frozen since. The report illustrates the difficulty of reaching a stable agreement: while Iranian diplomats seek urgent economic relief, the Revolutionary Guards and the hardline camp use the threat of escalating activity in the strait to extract further concessions. According to the mediators, the internal dispute raises doubts about whether Iran's representatives can enforce agreements across all power centers in the country.