The Middle East: Where to?
A strategic analysis of the Middle East's future, beginning with a description of the existing regional structure in terms of instability, external penetration, and military spending, then moving to an analysis of the conflict between the United States and Iran and its repercussions on the regional order, focusing on the erosion of American hegemony and the emergence of Iran as a potential center, and an assessment of Israeli gains from the current situation despite the costs.
The article presents a strategic analysis of the Middle East's future, divided into two main sections. First, it describes the existing structure of the region as the highest globally in political instability, authoritarianism, external penetration, and military spending, questioning its ability to evolve. Second, it analyzes the ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, concluding that the United States has not defeated Iran despite heavy blows, which reinforces a growing sense of American failure in ordering the region, especially given its previous failures in Afghanistan, Iraq, and resolving the Palestinian issue. The author sees this erosion of American credibility as opening a channel for Iran to nominate itself as a regional center, while other international powers (China and Russia) do not seem eager to fill the void. As for Israel, the author sees it as the primary beneficiary of the situation, despite the costs represented by a decline in political stability, international standing, and human bleeding. The author enumerates upcoming Israeli perceptions, including accelerating settlement, creating buffer zones, creating conditions that are push factors for Palestinians, and expanding normalization.