The Middle East is changing – and Saudi Arabia has moved to a different game | Dr. Eitan Lesri

Saudi Arabia is building strategic independence through a defense alliance with Turkey and Pakistan, while maintaining ties with Washington and channels with Iran and China. Israel is required to move from a reactive to a strategic initiative, deepen secret cooperation, and prevent security erosion in the face of the Saudi nuclear program.

The Middle East is entering a new era, and Saudi Arabia is not waiting for the US or Israel to shape its security and economic future. The kingdom's foreign policy is guided by protecting its economic stability and the goals of 'Vision 2030'. In light of the regional war with Iran, Riyadh has formulated a decentralized defense strategy, 'playing on all fronts', which includes nuclear agreements with Washington, Muslim alliances, dialogue with Tehran, and fighting its proxies. The military alliance with Turkey and Pakistan offers a division of roles: Saudi Arabia brings capital, Turkey brings defense industry and military, and Pakistan brings strategic depth and nuclear deterrence. For Israel, the Turkish component is particularly concerning. Meanwhile, the nuclear agreement without signing the IAEA's 'Additional Protocol' gives the kingdom room for maneuver, and could open a regional nuclear arms race. Saudi Arabia is absorbing Iranian missile and drone barrages, and the Houthis have declared an end to the truce and launched attacks in Marib and Najran, hit a Saudi base, and imposed a naval blockade in the Red Sea. In response, Saudi Arabia operates a dual policy: active military response and diplomatic management with Tehran. In the Gulf, there is security solidarity against Iran, but economic competition with the UAE over influence in Yemen and ports in the Horn of Africa. Regarding Israel, Saudi Arabia conditions normalization on progress toward a two-state solution and an end to fighting in Gaza. The US decision to grant a nuclear agreement without conditioning on the Abraham Accords weakened Israel's leverage. However, secret cooperation continues, and Saudi Arabia sees Israel as a vital link in the IMEC economic corridor. The 'Mecca Agreement' is a Saudi declaration of strategic independence. Israel must move from a reactive to a strategic initiative: cease expectations of rapid normalization, deepen secret cooperation, prevent security erosion, and offer technologies that have no substitute. The question is whether Israel will know how to offer Riyadh a reason to choose it as well.