The Gulf Will Never Be the Same Again: Iran's Huge Victory
The article analyzes the deep rifts between Gulf states following Iranian attacks and the struggle over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman have alternatives for oil exports, while Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are completely dependent on the strait. The internal division makes it difficult to form a unified response to Iran.
The article, based on conversations with Arab and American diplomats, describes the deepening rifts between Gulf states following Iranian attacks and the struggle over the opening of the Strait of Hormuz. While Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Oman are able to export oil and gas bypassing the strait, Qatar, Kuwait, and Bahrain are completely dependent on it. The UAE's withdrawal from OPEC in April exacerbated tensions, and a senior diplomat was quoted as saying that "the Gulf will never be the same again" and that the Gulf Cooperation Council "in its current form simply does not function." The US-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February shocked the states, but Iranian retaliatory attacks divided the Arab bloc instead of uniting it. A Reuters report on the UAE's plan to transfer billions of dollars to Iran, which was denied, increased mistrust. The article also notes a split in the US administration between the White House and the Pentagon regarding involvement in the region.