The face toward Iran: From a military campaign to an economic campaign

US President Donald Trump announced an operation to intensify the economic isolation of Iran, signaling a shift from a broad military campaign to an economic one. Trump did not detail the steps but promised action against countries that assist Tehran. Meanwhile, the US established a protected shipping lane in the southern Strait of Hormuz, allowing the transfer of about 10 million barrels of oil per night. The move reflects a return to the "maximum pressure" policy from Trump's first term.

US President Donald Trump announced an operation to intensify the economic isolation of Iran, a move that signals a strategic shift from a broad military campaign to an economic one. It appears Trump has become convinced that a return to a broad war does not guarantee the victory picture he desires, especially given Iran's ability to inflict significant damage. Trump did not detail what the operation would include but promised severe measures against any country that assists Iran. Meanwhile, Axios reported that the US secretly established a protected shipping lane in the southern Strait of Hormuz, allowing tankers escorted by convoys and under American air cover to transfer about 10 million barrels of oil per night. The preference to renew and intensify the economic campaign reflects a return to the "maximum pressure" policy that Trump adopted in his first term after withdrawing from the nuclear deal in May 2018. This policy led Iran into a severe economic crisis, reflected in an unprecedented low in oil exports, a sharp budget deficit, inflation of over 40 percent, and an economic contraction of nearly 10 percent. At this stage, it is unclear what steps the administration intends to take to effectively enforce the economic campaign. However, several factors that did not exist in 2018 work in its favor: the naval blockade is already significantly harming Iranian oil exports, and two of Iran's main trading partners, the UAE and Iraq, have changed their approach. Iranian officials dismissed Trump's statement, but reports of the worsening economic crisis are multiplying. The reformist newspaper "Shargh" described this week a severe crisis in the food market, after food prices rose in July 2026 by more than 128 percent. Economic pressure is a means to change Iran's policy, but at this stage there is no evidence that Tehran is ready to flex its positions. It appears Iran estimates that through a combination of a "survival economy" and gradual escalation, it can make Trump blink first.