The Demographic Demon
Ron Shapira argues that the demographic anxiety shaping politics is based on erroneous forecasts. He explains that the average fertility rate is misleading, and demonstrates through a model how a population can grow even with low fertility. He cites historical examples to argue that cultures enrich themselves, not disappear.
In his opinion piece, Ron Shapira argues that demographic anxiety, which shapes Israeli and global politics, is based on erroneous apocalyptic forecasts. He identifies this anxiety as a driver of the rise of the far right in Europe and of the anti-democratic drift of the 'judges-pilots-civil servants coalition' in Israel. Shapira criticizes the claim that 'humanity is wiping itself out' due to declining birth rates, explaining that the global average fertility rate of about 2.2 children per woman is misleading, as it averages different subpopulations. He demonstrates through a hypothetical model of two groups ('blues' and 'greens') that even with a total fertility rate of 1.85, the population can grow in the long run if a group with higher fertility grows. He cites historical examples, such as Hellenistic culture and Rome, to argue that cultures change and enrich themselves, not disappear. The article concludes with the assessment that Israeli society will develop and there is no need to prepare for the 'end of all flesh.'