The Decision That Will Shape the Middle East: Trump Must Choose Between Escalation and Settlement

US President Trump faces a strategic decision between expanding the campaign against Iran and returning to a settlement. The decision could affect Israel, the Gulf states, and regional stability. Within the US administration, there is growing understanding that the operational model has exhausted itself, while the Yemeni arena continues to serve Iranian strategy.

US President Donald Trump faces a strategic decision between expanding the campaign against Iran and returning to a path of settlement. His decision could have far-reaching implications for Israel, the Gulf states, and regional stability. Within the US administration, there is growing understanding that the operational model of recent weeks has exhausted itself, and that continuing the same policy will not change Iran's behavior. US military commanders have warned of a depletion of interceptor stocks. On the other hand, escalation could exacerbate the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz and raise energy prices. Meanwhile, the Yemeni arena continues to serve Iranian strategy: the Houthis are increasing pressure on Saudi Arabia by targeting shipping lanes, presenting Riyadh with a similar dilemma. Israel is also directly affected by decisions in Washington and Riyadh. Tehran is exploiting its foothold in Iraq to operate against Saudi Arabia and Jordan through militias.