The deal with al-Sharaa that will preserve Putin's foothold in the Middle East

Syria announced a memorandum of understanding with Russia to continue operating the bases in Tartus and Khmeimim, which will become joint training centers. Moscow has not yet confirmed. The agreement is seen as significant for preserving Russia's influence in the Middle East.

Syria announced on Sunday afternoon that after a year and a half of "intensive" negotiations, it and Russia reached an agreement on the continued operation of Russian bases on the Syrian coast – the Russian naval base in Tartus and the Russian air base in Khmeimim. According to the statement from the Foreign Ministry in Damascus, these bases will become "joint training centers" within three months. It is unclear what this means, but the statement suggests that the Russian military presence in Syria will continue into the distant future. Moscow has not yet responded to the new agreement, which Damascus claims opens a "new chapter" in relations between Moscow and the new government of Ahmed al-Sharaa. Russia was an ally of the Syrian regime for decades, and since the outbreak of the civil war in 2011, it supported the dictator Bashar al-Assad, and in 2015 even actively joined the war, helping him with airstrikes against his rivals. Al-Sharaa is a former al-Qaeda operative who led the jihadist organization Jabhat al-Nusra, which later became Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and his Islamist fighters were the ones who absorbed those bombings. In December 2024, after it seemed Assad had practically won the war, they launched a rapid conquest campaign, toppling him and forcing him to flee to Russia. The fall of Assad and the rise of al-Sharaa was seen as a major blow to Russian aspirations for influence in the Middle East, and among other things, it raised questions about the future of the two large military bases Russia holds on the Syrian coast, Tartus and Khmeimim. From the very beginning, the new government in Damascus, which sought stability and reconstruction of the devastated country, did not rule out allowing the Russians to continue operating these bases from its territory, but also signaled that it would demand compensation, including war reparations and the extradition of the fugitive dictator Assad. No such extradition has occurred, and there is no indication that it was agreed upon in the talks that led to the current agreement, which also included a direct meeting in the Kremlin between Putin and al-Sharaa last October. The details of the signed agreement are not entirely clear, but in the Syrian Foreign Ministry's statement on Sunday afternoon, it was described as a "memorandum of understanding," meaning not a fully detailed agreement, establishing a "process of reorganizing the Russian presence on the Syrian coast" – with Syria taking over the management of civilian facilities in the area, including the anchorage for civilian ships in Tartus port and the airport near Latakia, the area where the Khmeimim base is located. In parallel with the Syrian Foreign Ministry's announcement, the Syrian Civil Aviation Authority announced on Sunday afternoon that it had received the international airport in Latakia, previously managed by Russia, and "began preparations for its rehabilitation." Russian activity at that international airport since the fall of the Assad regime had been very limited anyway, and refugees also lived within that compound. Regarding the bases and military facilities, according to the Syrian Foreign Ministry, "the two sides agreed to redefine their role, turning them from military bases into joint training centers under new arrangements that protect mutual interests," it was stated. "The memorandum of understanding sets a timeframe of no more than three months to complete the transformation process, after which the new arrangements will take effect. This step is considered most significant since the start of negotiations about a year and a half ago and opens the door to a new phase in Syria-Russia relations."