"The coming weeks are critical": The severe warning regarding Turkey and the fear of miscalculation | Michael Harari
Israel and Turkey do not want a direct confrontation, but the struggle over freedom of action and influence in Syria could lead to escalation. The correspondent warns of a miscalculation and calls for assertive American intervention. Israel suspects the al-Sharaa government and operates under an exaggerated perception against any policy of containment, while Turkey sees Syria as a strategic opportunity.
Israel does not want a direct confrontation with Turkey, but it seeks to maintain its freedom of action in Syrian territory and skies, especially for future scenarios against Iran. At the same time, Israel's suspicion of the al-Sharaa government remains. All this is under the shadow of October 7 and Israel's new—and exaggerated, it must be said—perception against any expression of a containment policy. Turkey does not want a direct confrontation with Israel, but it is concerned about what it interprets as "high-intensity activity" by Israel on multiple fronts in the region. Regarding Syria, Turkey sees the al-Sharaa government as a primary strategic opportunity to protect its vital interests, with an emphasis on the Kurdish angle, and of course, to strengthen its influence in the Syrian arena and beyond. Syria stands in the middle. On one hand, the Israeli strike serves it by repeatedly proving Israel's "offensive intentions" and its violation of Syrian sovereignty, so international pressure on Israel to curb its activity is expected. On the other hand, there is the danger that the Syrian arena will become a more severe Israeli-Turkish confrontation arena, harming al-Sharaa's attempts to expand his control over the country and deal with the dire economic situation. Correspondent Michael Harari warns that the coming weeks are critical and calls for assertive American intervention to prevent a miscalculation.