The bubbling pressure cooker in Iran - and the possible scenarios that will eventually arrive

According to IDF Intelligence assessments, Mojtaba Khamenei survived the attack in Operation "Roar of the Lion," physically wounded and eager for revenge. He surrounds himself with extremist commanders from the Revolutionary Guards. In Israel, assessments indicate the regime is on the verge of collapse, which could last one to three years, and that public frustration in Iran may erupt against the regime or against the US and Israel.

Walla has learned that according to IDF Intelligence assessments, Mojtaba Khamenei survived the attack in Operation "Roar of the Lion" and remains physically wounded to this day. He is eager to avenge his father's death and makes decisions independently. Khamenei surrounds himself with extremist commanders from the Revolutionary Guards, including experienced commanders from the Iran-Iraq war. In Israel, assessments indicate this could lead the regime "to the abyss." Reports from Iran indicate difficulty in purchasing food, with not every family able to afford meat. According to defense establishment assessments, public frustration could lead to two processes: some will develop hatred for the regime and protest against it, while others will channel their frustration against the US or Israel. According to assessments by Israeli sources, the American-Israeli aspiration is to exploit negative processes in Iran and accelerate them through influence tools. The collapse of the regime at the current pace could last between one to three years. Continued pressure depends on enforcement of American sanctions, blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and the joining of China and the UAE. The main concern of Gulf states is that the US will reach understandings with Iran or abandon the Middle East. In preliminary discussions for the operation, it emerged that 75 to 80 percent of the Iranian people are against the regime, and the Iranian bazaar serves as a barometer for what is happening in the country.