The battle for 2030: Europe awakens - but is it too late? | Weekend Special

Europe is advancing a historic rearmament plan worth approximately 800 billion euros by 2030, in response to the Russian threat and the shift in US policy. The plan includes expanding ground forces, procuring tanks and fighter jets, and building an independent defense industry. Poland and Germany are leading the effort, but the main challenge is funding cuts to welfare budgets.

Europe at the end of the decade will no longer be the quiet continent of the early century. Under the global radar, the European Union is advancing an ambitious rearmament plan worth nearly 800 billion euros, aimed at turning the continent into an independent military power by 2030. The move stems from two main factors: the direct Russian threat, which became clear with the war in Ukraine and hybrid attacks, and the shift in US policy, which is turning its attention to the Indo-Pacific region and expects Europe to bear its own security burden. On the practical level, the plan includes expanding ground forces by hundreds of thousands of soldiers, massive procurement of thousands of tanks, armored personnel carriers, and artillery systems, equipping with fifth-generation fighter jets, multi-layered air defense systems, submarines, and unmanned aerial vehicles. Poland is becoming the strongest land power in Europe, and Germany has declared a historic turnaround with massive funds for rearmament. Alongside the military aspect, there is a huge economic engine: Europe is trying to build an independent defense industry, shifting billions to local production, creating jobs, and investing in research and development. However, the price is heavy: diverting 800 billion euros to security means cuts to welfare, health, and education budgets, a dilemma known as the historic debate between butter and guns. For Israel, the move holds a huge economic opportunity – major deals like the sale of the Arrow 3 system to Germany are just the beginning – but also a political risk: a more independent Europe may take a tougher line in the Middle East, which may not always align with Israeli interests.