The Balfour Sting: Netanyahu Leaves Ben Gvir Out – And Sets a Trap for Ofer Winter

Benjamin Netanyahu has decided not to offer Ofer Winter an excess-vote agreement and to turn to Religious Zionism, a move that leaves Winter and Ben Gvir facing a new political dilemma. Winter faces a choice between an agreement with Ben Gvir, which is currently unlikely, and an agreement with Avigdor Lieberman, which could provide the Likud with campaign ammunition. Ben Gvir, for his part, loses his most natural partner for an excess-vote agreement.

Benjamin Netanyahu has decided not to offer Ofer Winter an excess-vote agreement and to turn to Religious Zionism, a move that leaves Winter and Ben Gvir facing a new political dilemma. For Winter, any possible partner for the agreement could carry a political price. The option of signing an agreement with Ben Gvir does not currently seem feasible, both because of the relationship between the parties and because each seeks to differentiate itself before its target audience. Another option is an agreement with Avigdor Lieberman, but such a move could provide the Likud with ammunition for a campaign that already seeks to tie Winter to Lieberman and the anti-Netanyahu camp. An agreement with Yisrael Beiteinu might be electorally beneficial but could cost Winter politically among right-wing voters. Conversely, forgoing an excess-vote agreement entirely could reduce his chances of gaining an additional seat in the surplus-vote distribution. For Ben Gvir, this is also a significant change: if Religious Zionism signs with Likud, Otzma Yehudit will have to seek another partner or run without an agreement. The definition in the political system for the move: a blow to Ben Gvir – and a test for Winter. The article explains that an excess-vote agreement is signed between two lists before the elections and affects the distribution of remaining seats after the initial allocation, but does not guarantee an additional seat.