Tehran readies to crush renewed unrest, risking war to maintain control in Strait of Hormuz

Iran is preparing to suppress potential domestic unrest and endure economic hardship from a US blockade, according to analysts. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran would shift to a 'fully offensive' posture after Washington ruled out extending a ceasefire. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi prefers negotiations but is unlikely to accept a deal ceding control of the Strait of Hormuz. The US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which expired Monday, collapsed over the waterway's control. Human rights groups reported over 30,000 killed in January protests. Iran's inflation exceeds 80%. The regime appointed Hossein Taeb, known for crushing 2009 protests, to lead the Basij.

Iran is positioning itself to suppress potential domestic unrest and endure prolonged economic hardship from a US blockade, according to international experts. A senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday that Tehran would shift to a 'fully offensive' posture after Washington ruled out extending a temporary ceasefire. The Institute for the Study of War assessed that hardliners in Iran's Supreme National Security Council could support a deal with the US, provided it leaves the Strait of Hormuz under Iranian control. The assessment was based on an Axios report, later confirmed by a spokesperson for the Iraqi Kurdistan presidency, that IRGC Commander Ahmad Vahidi had maintained indirect contact with the US and preferred negotiations. However, the continued attacks on vessels suggest Vahidi would be unlikely to accept an agreement that did not leave the waterway under Iranian control. The memorandum of understanding, which included a 60-day window that expired on Monday, collapsed over the dispute. Human rights organizations reported that upwards of 30,000 people were killed by regime security forces during January demonstrations. Iran's year-on-year inflation rate remains above 80%. The regime recently appointed Hossein Taeb, known for crushing the 2009 demonstrations, as commander of the Basij paramilitary force, a sign that Tehran is preparing to resume its suppression of dissent.