Surprise Attack: How Putin Could Catch NATO Off Guard
New US intelligence reports, as reported by the Wall Street Journal, suggest Putin may test NATO's resolve with a limited attack on a member state in the coming years, amid a depletion of American ammunition stocks. Scenarios range from a cyberattack to a limited ground invasion.
New US intelligence reports, published according to a report last night (Friday) in the Wall Street Journal, suggest that Russian President Vladimir Putin may attempt to test NATO's resolve through a limited attack on one of its member states in the coming years. Possible scenarios range from a large-scale cyberattack to a limited ground invasion. The assessments come amid a growing shortage of critical ammunition in the US military, which has been eroded by massive arms shipments to Ukraine since the start of the war, as well as by concurrent conflicts, including the arena against Iran. Among the weapons systems at risk are long-range precision strike missiles, tactical missile systems of the ground forces, and short-range air defense missiles of the Stinger type. Until recently, Washington assumed that Putin would avoid provoking a NATO member state as long as fighting continues in Ukraine, but early this year there was a shift in this assessment, due to growing concern in the Kremlin about the shrinking room for maneuver in Ukraine and internal pressure to present a significant military achievement. Meanwhile, Ukrainian drone attacks are causing expanding damage to the Russian military and oil industry, while Russian forces' gains on the front are limited and accompanied by heavy losses. Leaders in the US and Europe point to signs that Russia is already testing the alliance's response, including Russian cruise missiles that landed in Polish territory and unmanned aerial vehicles that penetrated Romanian airspace. A central goal of such a move would be to undermine unity within NATO. Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said: "The big question is how the United States will respond. The challenge to NATO's credibility and the attempt to separate the US from its allies have been and remain a central goal of Russia."