Surplus agreements: The next political battle - within the blocs

The article reviews the significance of surplus agreements in the elections for the 26th Knesset, analyzing the political considerations and expected frictions within the coalition bloc, the opposition bloc, and the Arab parties regarding signing these agreements, which could decide a close election.

The article by Eili Zilberberg in Israel Hayom provides a comprehensive overview of the next political campaign surrounding surplus agreements, just days after the closure of the lists for the 26th Knesset. The author explains the technical mechanism of the 1973 Bader-Ofer law, whereby parties can sign a surplus agreement with one additional party, and the calculation is done as if they were one party, provided both pass the electoral threshold. The article emphasizes that this is a seemingly technical issue with great political significance in close elections, citing data from previous elections: Shas won its 11th seat thanks to such an agreement, Likud added 2 seats, and the National Unity Party and Yesh Atid each added one seat. The analysis focuses on three main blocs. In the coalition bloc, which includes six parties, Likud signed an agreement with Religious Zionism and Zehut, as a kind of reward for the merger, but this leaves out Itamar Ben-Gvir and Otzma Yehudit and Ofer Winter's "Amcha Yisrael." The author notes that the pressure campaign against Winter has already begun, and cooperation between him and Ben-Gvir could create problems. In the opposition bloc, which includes four parties (Yashar of Eisenkot, Together of Bennett and Lapid, the Democrats of Yair Golan, and Yisrael Beiteinu of Lieberman), there is a complex issue: no one in the bloc wants to be seen as having their votes, even in a technical connection, strengthen Golan's Democrats. Lieberman will find it difficult to sign with Golan, and Bennett and Eisenkot are trying to court the right. The author estimates that it will be easier for Eisenkot to sign with Golan than for Bennett. Additionally, the article deals with the Arab parties, where there is bad blood due to Mansour Abbas's refusal to join the Joint List, and the third bloc of Handel-Zlicha and Gantz, where the likelihood of an agreement is low due to polls and personal tensions.