Support for Israel takes center stage in Michigan, Missouri Democratic primaries - analysis

Michigan and Missouri Democratic primaries on Tuesday test whether criticism of Israel has become a broader electoral force. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, backed by progressives, challenges Rep. Haley Stevens, supported by the establishment and pro-Israel groups. In Missouri, Cori Bush seeks a comeback against Rep. Wesley Bell, who defeated her in 2024 with AIPAC support. Polls show declining Democratic favorability toward Israel, with 58% now believing the US is too supportive.

Democratic voters in Michigan and Missouri head to the polls on Tuesday in two primary contests that could signal whether criticism of Israel has become a broader electoral force within the party. In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive endorsed by Sen. Bernie Sanders and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is campaigning to end unconditional US military aid to Israel and has accused Israel of committing genocide in Gaza. He faces Rep. Haley Stevens, backed by Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer, and major pro-Israel organizations, with an estimated more than $30 million in outside spending from AIPAC-affiliated groups. Stevens supports the US-Israel alliance but has criticized Netanyahu's policies. In Missouri, former Rep. Cori Bush, a member of the progressive 'Squad,' is attempting a comeback against Rep. Wesley Bell, who defeated her in 2024 with AIPAC support. Pro-Israel groups have invested over $3 million to prevent her return. Polls show declining Democratic favorability toward Israel: a Reuters/Ipsos survey found favorable views fell from 59% in 2018 to 22% in May 2026, and an AP-NORC survey found 58% of Democrats now believe the US is too supportive of Israel, up from 45% at the beginning of 2024. The results could shape how Democratic presidential hopefuls position themselves on Israel ahead of the 2028 election cycle.