Sinwar–Dahlan–Shin Bet Axis: What Really Stood Behind the 'Intelligence Transferred' on the Eve of the War? | Baruch Yedid
Israeli sources and associates of Mohammed Dahlan reveal the network of connections that preceded October 7. 'Intelligence' information passed from Sinwar to Dahlan and from him to the Shin Bet in September 2023 was not perceived as a warning, but as a smokescreen. A senior intelligence official admits: the information fell short in quality compared to Israeli intelligence and did not prompt action. The move was part of a broad Hamas deception campaign aimed at lulling the system.
Israeli sources and associates of senior Palestinian figure Mohammed Dahlan shed light on the network of connections and content of messages passed from Hamas to Dahlan, and from him onward to UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. From September 2023, 'intelligence' information was passed from Yahya Sinwar to Sufian Abu Zaida, a senior Fatah figure and Dahlan associate, and from there to Dahlan and within a short time to the Shin Bet. A very senior Israeli intelligence official commented on the quality of the information that reached the Shin Bet: 'This information was not a warning, not high-quality, and not operational, and it fell short compared to intelligence collected in Israel... therefore this information did not move the system to action.' The Hamas-Dahlan-Shin Bet axis is not new and therefore was not perceived as exceptional; Sufian Abu Zaida maintains ties with senior Hamas figure Ghazi Hamad and with senior Shin Bet official Adi Rotem. Dahlan's associates claim that Sinwar passed information indicating a possible flare-up, but the answer is clear: Sinwar did not provide any valuable operational detail, but acted within a broad deception campaign that preceded October 7. About two months earlier, Sinwar sent Khalil al-Hayya to Beirut for a meeting with Iranian figures where the attack date was agreed upon. The move fits into a series of deception actions identified in retrospect: Hamas approached journalists and former officials in an attempt to 'lull' Israel, while presenting Sinwar as someone seeking to establish a 'civilian rescue front' for Gaza. 'This information was not the chemicals of Ashraf Marwan,' the intelligence official concluded with a chuckle, 'anyway, the concept swallowed all the signs—and it killed us all.'