Security establishment fears Iran will activate Shiite militias in Iraq against Israel

The Israeli security establishment fears that Iran will activate pro-Iranian Shiite militias operating in Iraq to carry out attacks against Israel, prompting the IDF to raise its alert level. This comes amid rising tensions between Iran and the US, after Trump threatened strikes if no agreement with Oman on the Strait of Hormuz is reached. Iran's foreign ministry spokesman called the talks "positive," and Secretary of State Rubio said progress was made but no breakthrough. According to the New York Times, the sides are close to an agreement on reopening shipping in the strait, but a US official denies the Iranian version. Meanwhile, a US missile shortage was reported.

The Israeli security establishment fears that Iran will attempt to activate pro-Iranian Shiite militias operating in Iraq to carry out offensive operations against Israel. Following this assessment, the IDF raised its alert level. This comes against the backdrop of escalating tensions between Iran and the United States, which reached a boiling point after President Donald Trump's statement today (Tuesday) that Iran must reach an agreement with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz, or face devastating strikes. In response, the Iranian foreign ministry spokesman said the talks with Oman were assessed as "positive," both on the technical and political levels. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said there are two types of agreements: one concerning Iran's nuclear ambitions, and the other, more immediate, concerning the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, progress was made in the talks, but a final breakthrough has not yet been achieved. According to a report in the New York Times, Iran and Oman are close to an agreement to reopen shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, under which vessels entering the Persian Gulf would pass through a route under Iran's control, and those exiting would pass through a route adjacent to Oman. Iranian officials said no transit fees would be charged, but the agreement includes "service fees" to cover environmental and security impacts. A US official involved in the negotiations said the Iranian version is "inaccurate." Meanwhile, the American threats of additional strikes are seen as "problematic" due to reports of a major shortage of interceptors and long-range missiles, including the ATACMS system and PrSM missiles, each costing over a million dollars.