Russia will be helpless against Ukrainian drone attacks - ISW

ISW analysts have concluded that Russia will not be able to fully protect its territory from Ukrainian drone attacks in the near future. Problems with air defense are also acknowledged by Russian military bloggers, who suggest using passive defense measures. Russia's defense industry is unable to meet the growing air defense needs.

Analysts at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) have concluded that Russia will not be able to fully protect its territory from Ukrainian drone attacks in the near future. The problems of Russian air defense are acknowledged not only by independent analysts but also by representatives of the Russian information space. Russian military bloggers openly state that Russia is currently unable to completely stop Ukrainian long-range drones. In this regard, they propose using not only direct interception means but also passive protection: anti-drone nets, shelters, and infrastructure redundancy. ISW believes that the Russian defense industry is unlikely to meet the country's growing air defense needs. Russia faces the difficult task of simultaneously covering the front and protecting a vast territory deep within the country. The expansion of Ukrainian strikes creates additional strain on resources. During 2026, Ukraine significantly increased the intensity of attacks, using long-range missiles and drones against military industry, energy, and logistics facilities. According to analysts, further expansion of Ukraine's strike capabilities could increase the burden on air defense and raise the economic and social costs of the war for Russia.