Rout in the Black Sea: Russia Has Nothing Left to Launch Kalibrs

The systematic destruction of ships and the attack on Novorossiysk have reduced the combined salvo of the Black Sea Fleet to a record low. A series of precision operations by Ukraine's Defense Forces led to the rout of the main strike group of Russia's Black Sea Fleet capable of using Kalibr cruise missiles. According to Defense Express, at the start of the full-scale invasion, the combined potential allowed a simultaneous salvo of up to 76 3M14 missiles. The regular destruction of key units—from the sunk Tsiklon and the damaged Askold to the elimination of the submarine Rostov-on-Don—has radically changed the balance of power. A recent night attack on Novorossiysk damaged the frigates Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov. No more than five carriers remain, with a maximum salvo of 16–20 missiles.

A series of precision operations by Ukraine's Defense Forces has led to the rout of the main strike group of Russia's Black Sea Fleet capable of using Kalibr cruise missiles. According to Defense Express, at the start of the full-scale invasion, the combined potential of Russian surface and submarine forces in the region allowed a simultaneous salvo of up to 76 3M14 missiles. However, the regular destruction of key units—from the sunk small missile ship Tsiklon and the damaged Askold to the elimination of the submarine Rostov-on-Don—has radically changed the balance of power in the water area. A particularly tangible blow to the remnants of the occupiers' missile potential was dealt by a recent night attack on the naval base in Novorossiysk. Analysis of fresh satellite imagery confirms damage in the area of the missile silos of two key frigates of Project 11356R—Admiral Essen and Admiral Makarov—as well as the probable damage to a small missile ship of the Buyan-M project. The deformation of the metal UKSK 3S14 launchers effectively puts the frigates out of action until complex and lengthy repairs are completed, depriving the enemy of the main platforms for sea-based missile strikes. Today, the Black Sea Fleet has no more than five potential Kalibr carriers in a combat-ready state—two Buyan-M ships, the submarines Stary Oskol and Veliky Novgorod, and the morally obsolete submarine Alrosa, whose real technical condition raises deep doubts among experts. Thus, the maximum one-time salvo of the Russian fleet in the Black Sea has collapsed to 16–20 missiles. Although the Kremlin retains the technical ability to transfer ships via inland waterways through the Volga and Don or to strike from the Caspian Sea, these maneuvers are significantly limited by logistics and cannot fully compensate for the loss of maritime dominance.