Report: Sharp Increase in Number of Eligible Voters – and in the Threshold Required to Pass the Electoral Threshold

The Taub Center warns that due to the growth in the voting population, the threshold to pass the electoral threshold in the 2026 elections will rise significantly, possibly reaching about 200,000 votes. In the 2022 elections, the threshold stood at about 155,000 votes, and about 420,000 voters (8.8%) were lost. Prof. Alex Weinreb calls on parties with no chance to withdraw.

The Taub Center published today (Tuesday) a special document ahead of the 2026 Knesset elections, warning of a sharp rise in the threshold for entering the Knesset. In the 2022 elections, the threshold stood at about 155,000 valid votes, and about 420,000 voters (8.8% of all voters, about ten seats) voted for parties that did not pass the electoral threshold. The growth in the eligible voter population – from 6.789 million in November 2022 to about 7.561 million at the end of October 2026 – stems from large cohorts reaching age 18 and large waves of naturalization. According to scenario analysis, the threshold will stand at about 171,000 votes with a 70% turnout, about 183,000 at 75%, and about 195,000 at 80%. Prof. Alex Weinreb, head of the demography department at the Taub Center, emphasizes that any change of one percentage point in turnout changes the threshold by about 2,240 votes. He calls on parties with no chance to withdraw from the race to prevent further loss of votes.