Regime Change Under Trump's Auspices: US Seeks New Leader for Cuba - and There Are Already Successors
The Trump administration is seeking a pragmatic Cuban official who could take over the government in Havana, as part of an intensified pressure campaign on Cuba. The CIA has established a special task force, and senior officials have met with potential candidates. However, intelligence assesses that more hardline factions are waiting in Cuba, and the situation resembles Iran more than Venezuela.
The Trump administration is looking for a Cuban official, past or present, who could be persuaded to take over the government in Havana, while the United States intensifies its pressure campaign on the Caribbean island. The plan is defined as a "change of face of the regime" rather than a full "regime change." A New York Times report reveals that the administration has pressured intelligence agencies to find a figure in the style of Delcy Rodríguez, who became Venezuela's interim president after the capture of Nicolás Maduro in January. American officials viewed Rodríguez as a pragmatic figure and believe a similar one can be found in Cuba. However, intelligence assesses that the situation in Cuba resembles Iran more. There are very few pragmatic officials willing to seize power if Raúl Castro is captured or the current leadership is ousted; the officials waiting in the wings represent more hardline and extreme factions. In recent weeks, senior American officials have presented a list of demands to Cuba's leaders, including economic liberalization, openness to American businesses, purchasing oil from the US, and expelling Russian and Chinese intelligence agents, in exchange for humanitarian aid and easing sanctions. The Cuban government led by Miguel Díaz-Canel does not appear ready for concessions. Potential candidates include Oscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, a relative of Fidel Castro, but he is probably not acceptable to the US; the administration may be open to Raúl J. Rodríguez Castro, grandson of Raúl Castro, or Interior Minister Lázaro Alberto Álvarez Casas. CIA Director John Ratcliffe has met with both. The CIA has established a special task force. The US has imposed a de facto blockade on Cuba, leading to a severe energy crisis. The Justice Department has revealed an indictment against Raúl Castro, but unlike Maduro, he is 95 years old and holds no official position, and his capture would not necessarily lead to a change of power.