Red Sea on the Brink of a New War: Saudi Arabia Prepares for a Strike

Saudi Arabia is preparing for a possible new military campaign against the Houthis after a series of missile attacks and threats to shipping in the Red Sea. Riyadh is considering scenarios, but a full-scale invasion is considered unlikely. The escalation began in mid-July when the Houthis shelled the south of the kingdom for the first time in four years. An international coalition of 14 countries has been formed. Analysts believe that Yemeni forces will play the main role on the ground, while Saudi Arabia will limit itself to airstrikes and support. Possible directions include Al-Bayda, Marib, and the Red Sea coast. The goal is to reduce attacks and bring the Houthis back to negotiations.

Saudi Arabia is stepping up preparations for a possible new phase of the war with the Houthis after a series of missile attacks and threats to shipping in the Red Sea. Riyadh is considering several scenarios, but a full-scale invasion by its own ground forces is still considered unlikely. The new escalation began in mid-July, when the Houthis fired missiles at the south of Saudi Arabia for the first time in about four years. Later, the Ansar Allah movement announced a naval blockade of the kingdom and claimed attacks on oil tankers and energy facilities. The situation is especially dangerous due to the growing importance of the Red Sea: amid instability around the Strait of Hormuz, the kingdom is increasingly dependent on alternative oil export routes. In response, Saudi Arabia is strengthening air operations and maritime defense, and an international coalition of 14 countries has been formed to ensure shipping safety. Analysts believe that in the event of a new operation, Yemeni forces opposing the Houthis will play the main role on the ground. Saudi Arabia will most likely limit itself to airstrikes, intelligence support, coordination, supply, and border protection, to avoid repeating the 2015 campaign. Possible offensive directions include Al-Bayda province, Marib, and the Red Sea coast towards Hodeidah. The main goal will be to reduce the number of attacks and force the group back to the negotiating table. Some experts consider a large operation unlikely, noting that Yemeni government forces have become better prepared but are still insufficient. The conflict extends beyond Yemen: some attacks may have been carried out with the participation of Iran-linked formations from Iraq.