Putin's Regime Fears a Popular Uprising and Is Preparing Troops - ISW

The Kremlin, fearing social explosions due to the fuel crisis, has deployed Rosgvardia units to patrol gas stations in the Moscow region and Crimea. Simultaneously, authorities are preparing a bill allowing Emergency Situations Ministry employees to use weapons, which ISW analysts link to preparations for suppressing protests amid gasoline shortages and possible mobilization.

The Kremlin, fearing popular uprisings amid an acute fuel crisis, has deployed security forces to guard gas stations. According to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), since August 18, 2026, Rosgvardia units have been dispatched to patrol at least 13 gas stations in the Moscow region and occupied Crimea. The goal is to contain violence and mass discontent due to severe restrictions on gasoline sales. ISW notes that the involvement of Rosgvardia indicates the Kremlin's lack of confidence in the police's ability to handle potential unrest. Concurrently, a government commission has approved a bill allowing Emergency Situations Ministry employees to use physical force and firearms. Although officially disguised as protection against Ukrainian drones, ISW analysts believe the document is designed to provide legal justification for suppressing riots. These changes come amid two main fears of the regime: gasoline shortages and likely forced mobilization, which, according to ISW, Putin plans to carry out after the September State Duma elections.