Putin's New Plans for Ukraine – Newsweek Names Three Signs
Western analysts assess Kremlin's plans: Russia is intensifying missile strikes, accelerating production of long-range weapons, and integrating North Korean troops. Newsweek points to preparations for a new phase of the war. Experts consider continued strikes on infrastructure, rather than capturing all of Donbas, the most realistic scenario.
Western think tanks are assessing the Kremlin's real plans regarding Ukraine. Russia is significantly increasing the intensity of missile strikes on major Ukrainian cities, accelerating production of the most effective long-range weapons, and integrating North Korean soldiers into its ranks. As Newsweek writes, these trends indicate Moscow's preparation for a new, more extensive and aggressive phase of the war or a serious escalation. Emily Ferris, a research fellow at RUSI, emphasizes that active preparation for escalation is undoubtedly being recorded, but this does not mean an automatic intensification of the offensive immediately after the elections. Everything will depend on whether the Kremlin leadership believes in the real possibility of fully capturing all of Donbas. The expert community considers a range of scenarios, from the highly unlikely use of tactical nuclear weapons to mass mobilization of hundreds of thousands of Russians. Analysts consider the most realistic option to be the continuation of missile terror against Ukrainian critical infrastructure using improved long-range systems. Ballistic and hypersonic missiles remain the most difficult targets for air defense, especially given Ukraine's shortage of air defense assets. A significant factor has been Pyongyang's assistance: according to Western, Ukrainian, and South Korean assessments, North Korea has transferred artillery shells, ballistic missiles, and a contingent of up to 50,000 troops to Russia. In exchange, North Korea receives combat experience, support for its nuclear program, and channels for humanitarian aid. An additional tool to cover losses could be rumors of a new wave of mobilization. Although the large-scale conscription of 2022 provoked a mass exodus of citizens and protests, attracting hundreds of thousands of new soldiers is seen as a prerequisite for major offensive operations.