Playing with Fire: Judea and Samaria Could Erupt at Any Moment

Ynet military correspondent Yossi Yehoshua analyzes the situation in Judea and Samaria, where a combination of settlement expansion, IDF troop shortages, and a cycle of revenge creates an explosive environment. The July 24 incident, in which a fighter and a major were killed, became the trigger. The author assesses the likelihood of escalation as higher than a return to hostilities against Iran.

Ynet military correspondent Yossi Yehoshua warns that Judea and Samaria are at a point of 'operational boiling.' In his assessment, the probability of a significant explosion today is higher than a return to hostilities against Iran. The reason is not a peak in Palestinian terrorism, but a combination of sharp settlement expansion, IDF troop shortages, and the potential for a cycle of revenge between Jews and Palestinians. The July 24 incident, in which rapid response squad fighter Benayahu Melet and IDF Major Yuval Ezra were killed, became the match that lit the fuse. Within hours, the region shifted from combating Palestinian terrorism to fearing bilateral escalation. A series of acts of Jewish terrorism and 'price tag' actions occurred: arson of mosques and cars, graffiti with revenge threats in the Arab village of Kusra. The author notes that the IDF is trying to cool tensions: 26 battalions are in the region—an unprecedented number. However, the army faces a manpower shortage as nearly all fronts are active (Gaza, Lebanon, Syria). Over the weekend, training companies had to be deployed to reinforce the sector. Additionally, the number of settlements has sharply increased: 80 were approved, 34 began construction, and over 100 farms and illegal outposts were established. Each new settlement requires protection, increasing the burden on the army. Paradoxically, amid a decline in Palestinian terrorism, Jewish nationalist crime is rising—660 incidents in the first half of 2026 (a 63% increase), six Palestinians killed and 140 wounded. 45 attacks by far-right extremists on soldiers and police were recorded. The author also mentions concerns about the arming of Palestinian 'protection committees,' which could change the dynamics. He rejects claims that IDF commanders are not acting aggressively enough, noting that Major General Avi Bluth, Brigadier General Kobi Heller, and Shin Bet chief David Zini are well acquainted with the region.