Ozempic instead of handcuffs: the surprising reasons for the historic drop in crime in the US

The rate of violent crime in the US fell by 9.7% in 2025, the largest annual decline in 90 years. The murder rate dropped by 18.5% to 4.1 per 100,000 residents, the lowest since the 1950s. Researchers point to a decline in alcohol consumption, an aging population, artificial intelligence, and weight-loss drugs as possible factors, but no single definitive cause has been identified.

The United States is experiencing a historic decline in violent crime. According to an analysis by Axios, the violent crime rate fell by 9.7% in 2025, the largest annual drop since the FBI began collecting data 90 years ago. The murder rate fell by 18.5% to 4.1 per 100,000 residents, the lowest figure since the 1950s. The trend continues into the first half of 2026. Researchers offer a range of theories to explain the phenomenon, including a decline in alcohol consumption, an aging population, a return to occupational and social normalcy after lockdowns, and the surge in the use of artificial intelligence technologies and data analysis systems by Palantir, which enable the identification of crime hotspots. Another surprising theory is popular weight-loss drugs, such as Ozempic. Although the outgoing Trump administration attributed the decline to the deployment of the National Guard and harsher sentencing, experts note that crime fell at similar rates in cities that did not take these steps. However, experts warn that the expiration of federal budgets at the end of the year and a worsening economic situation could lead to a renewed increase.