Not just a myth: "Black August" is underway - and the level of concern in Russia is rising

A CNN analysis examines the phenomenon of "Black August" in Russia, a month historically marked by tragic events. Beyond the myth, the current summer is shaping up to be grim: slow progress on the Ukrainian front, attacks on oil refineries, a fuel crisis, and rumors of mobilization. Commentator Ilya Varlamov notes growing public concern, while Putin projects confidence.

A CNN analysis, published in Maariv, examines the phenomenon of "Black August" in Russia. Beyond the cultural myth, history shows that dramatic events tend to occur in August: the failed coup in 1991, the ruble crisis in 1998, the Second Chechen War in 1999, the sinking of the Kursk submarine in 2000, and the war in Georgia in 2008. The current summer is shaping up to be particularly grim: slow progress on the Ukrainian front, Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries and distribution centers, long lines at gas stations, and rumors of a new wave of mobilization. Exiled Russian commentator Ilya Varlamov noted that many Russians are awaiting August with apprehension, especially as the country is in crisis. Even the pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets addressed the anxieties, but attributed them to astrology. Putin continues to project confidence, but the gap between Moscow and Kyiv is exposed: in Ukraine, open civic processes take place, while in Russia the opposition has been eliminated. The conviction of Lev Schlossberg to 11 years in prison and the death of Alexei Navalny, whose journey to prison began with poisoning in August 2020, highlight the grim reality.